WANE TV & News-Sentinel Poll May Mean Little

The two media outlets have hyped the poll they had conducted back in mid October. Does the results mean much? One has to wonder as, both the Democrat Party Chairman and Republican Party Chairman where guarded in what the results showed. At first glance it appears Tom Henry is beating Matt Kelty so badly, that someone should put the beer on ice. However, people that know how polling is conducted remain uncommitted to what the results really mean.

The public has been advised very little of how the polling model was created. Was it just based on obtaining 600 "likely" voters across the city ? Was it based within zip codes, based on the political make up of the zip code? How many registered voters did they have to reach to find the 600 who where "likely" voters? This entire post could ask questions on how the sampling group was selected. Until WANE TV & The News-Sentinel spells out all the details concerning the survey, the results will be questionable.

The sampling error factors do not speak to what the city voters would do as a hole. What it did say, if a person sampled the voters in whatever fashion the polling company used, they would get the same response 19 of 20 times.

One has to look at what was going on during the days leading up to the polling. Was there good or bad news being put forth by the local media, that may have effect on what voters thought at that moment in time? This could cause a distortion in the results that causes "blip" but not a true valid long term statement. Some voters may days later, or even weeks, may have modified their potential voting decision after learning more of each candidate.

A major factor that a poll cannot calculate, regardless to how well it was done, is the voter actually going to vote. It is one thing to tell someone on the phone that a person intends to vote, but them doing so, is vastly different.

One point that needs to be considered that the undecided is a large group of voters. One would guess most of these people are ones that have considered voting for Kelty. They are in limbo if they will push the button for Kelty or not. It would also be natural to believe some part of the "anti Kelty" Republicans will end up voting for Kelty. They will have had well over a month to continue to evaluate their position from the time they where polled.